AND NOW THE REAL WORLD - AT 9:30 A.M. ET:  The hype machine has been working overtime in the last few weeks, aimed at convincing Americans that the recession is over and that prosperity is just around the corner - something, as I once read, that they said in 1929 as well.  This should sober things up:

WASHINGTON — The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week and retail sales disappointed in July. The latest government reports reinforced concerns about how quickly consumers will be able to contribute to a broad economic recovery.

"There is really no positive spin to put on these numbers," Jennifer Lee, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. "The U.S. consumer remains very weak. The jobs situation, while slowly improving, is still dismal."

The Labor Department says initial claims increased to a seasonally adjusted 558,000, from 554,000 the previous week. Analysts expected new claims to drop to 545,000, according to Thomson Reuters.

And...

While autos, helped by the start of the Cash for Clunkers program, showed a 2.4 percent jump — the biggest in six months — there was widespread weakness elsewhere. Gasoline stations, department stores, electronics outlets and furniture stores all reported declines.

The July dip was the first setback following two months of modest sales gains. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.6 percent, worse than the 0.1 percent rise economists had forecast.

COMMENT:  There are also warnings by some economists that the stock market rise is a bubble about to burst.  There's no way to know if that's true, but it's clear that we're far from out of the woods. 

August 13, 2009